OMT One Man's Trash...from Norman Leahy

Wednesday, December 27, 2006 :::

Demographics as Destiny

Via the Hotline come some census estimates that make for some interesting political discussion. Looking ahead to the post-2010 redistricting, the Hotline cites a Polidata study which estimates that: states are all but certain to lose at least one seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another six states are all but certain to gain at least one seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas and Utah.

A few other interesting projections from Polidata: Texas could pick up as many as 4 congressional seats; New York and Ohio could lose 2 seats. California, for the first time since statehood, may not pick up any seats.

The political center of gravity continues to shift South and West -- with the intermountain West gaining steam as California stagnates.

Of note in the census numbers are the lists of fastest growing states. Virginia doesn't make the cut in either the "Top Ten Fastest-Growing" or the "Top Ten Numeric Gainers." Those states are either to our south or in the West.

But if demography really is destiny, with political fortunes made and lost in the movement of peoples, then it would seem that the schism between religious Southern Conservatives and the more libertarian Westerners won't be going away and may become deeper.

::: posted by Norman Leahy at 12/27/2006 0 comments


"You know what the fellow said: In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they also produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love -- they had 500 years of democracy and peace, and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock." -- Orson Welles, The Third Man

"The graveyards are full of indespensable men" -- Charles de Gaulle

"Oh, so Mother Nature needs a favor? Well maybe she should have thought of that when she was besetting us with droughts and floods and poison monkeys. Nature started the fight for survival and now she wants to quit because she's losing. Well I say, hard cheese!" -- Montgomery Burns

"Don't pretend that you know me...cause I don't even know myself" -- The Who

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