OMT One Man's Trash...from Norman Leahy

Monday, October 17, 2005 :::

SurveyUSA: Kaine 47-45 Over Kilgore

A new SurveyUSA poll gives Tim Kaine only his second lead of the campaign, but like the last Rasmussen poll, the race is within the margin of error.

So what's changed in this one? Comparing the current crosstabs to the ones from a few weeks ago, one thing leaps out at me: Kilgore's support among Republicans falls from 90% in mid-September to 81% in the recent survey. Where did the people go? A handful to Potts, but more, it seems, to Kaine.

Conversely, Kaine continues to get Democrats behind him, as his numbers more from 84% in September to 90% today (the inverse of Kilgore).

Interesting, too, that in this poll the survey pool was slightly larger than last time. I have no idea whether that makes any difference in the numbers. It looks like another noticeable drop in Kilgore's numbers comes in the 18-34 age group. I thought last time, when he held a lead here, it was surprising. Now, it seems the members of this cohort were just as surprised and broke more for Kaine (though Kilgore maintains an advantage...still surprising).

The big flip, however, is Kaine's rising strength in Northern Virginia (called "Northeast" in the tabs...go figure). His lead in the recent poll looks formidable, and would seem, based on this poll alone, to show there was no impact from the endorsements Kilgore picked up a week ago. Actually, Kaine has gone from trailing in NoVa to a lead -- and there's the difference.

And then there's the Other Candidate...still taking it on the chin from the margin of error. But is Potts a factor in the results? Hard to say, as his overall numbers haven't moved. It looks to me like Kaine is calling the Democrats home, and most of them are in Northern Virginia.

Very interesting, all the way around.

::: posted by Norman Leahy at 10/17/2005 5 comments


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