OMT One Man's Trash...from Norman Leahy

Sunday, October 30, 2005 :::

As Chad Predicted, WaPo Poll Shows Kaine Ahead

The Washington Post's latest poll shows Tim Kaine with a three point lead over Jerry Kilgore, just at the edge of the margin of error.

And, sure enough, it looks like Chad had the script down cold yesterday, when he told us the Post would find the Republican candidate behind.

But buried in the story is this telling nugget:

The poll shows Kaine comfortably ahead in Northern Virginia. Democrats have done consistently well in Arlington and Alexandria, and the poll shows Kaine ahead by six percentage points in the outer suburbs, which include western Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, where the GOP is traditionally strong. Not all regions had a sufficient sample size in the poll to allow for regional analysis.


If "not all regions had a sufficient sample size in the poll for regional analysis," then is this poll any good?

That's for the statisticians to answer. But I wonder if that means this poll oversamples Northern Virginia -- which anyone with sense will admit is going to plump for Kaine.

Oddities aside, this poll continues to confirm that the race will be close, and election night will be long indeed.

::: posted by Norman Leahy at 10/30/2005 5 comments


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